Ellis Starr handicaps Tuesday's Music City Stakes

Ellis Starr

Ellis Starr is the National Racing Analyst for Equibase

Kentucky Downs
Tuesday September 15, 2020

Race 11

8 Finite – minimum win betting odds – 3/1

10 Kimari – minimum win betting odds – 3/1

6 She’s My Type – minimum win betting odds – 7/2

9 Lighthouse – minimum win betting odds – 7/2

Win bet strategy: As far as win betting goes, I think all three fillies above have about the same probability to win so the plan is to bet two of the three provided their odds are 3 to 1 or higher near post time. If all three have odds of 3 to 1 or higher then I’ll bet the two with the highest odds.

Two Exacta Options:
Box 6, 8, 9, 10

6, 8, 9, 10 over ALL. (In such a big field and with no likely heavy favorite, taking a shot perhaps one of the higher odds horses can split the contender is worth the risk in my opinion).

Finite is a multiple Grade 2 stakes winner, on dirt, who won her only start on turf. That race was here at Kentucky Downs and at this 6 ½ furlong trip one year and one day ago. Jose Ortiz rode her in that race, never before or since, but is charged with riding her today and that’s a HUGE sign for a big effort particularly as she’s been freshened for a few months since finishing fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks and as she’s been working consistently on the turf at Saratoga waiting for this spot.

Kimari scratched out of the Prioress Stakes on dirt last week at Saratoga, and out of the Ladies Sprint Saturday, to run here. She’s done little wrong in five turf starts including runner-up efforts in the Group 1 Commonwealth Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, and Ward wins a lot of races at Kentucky Downs. She gets the services of North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr and has been working spectacularly well for this race. As such, she deserves a lot of respect as a win contender. Note: Kimari was also entered in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes on closing day tomorrow and it appears her connections have chosen this race which is a good sign.

She’s My Type ran the best race of her career when winning the Coronation Cup Stakes at Saratoga at the end of July, showing a big late kick in the stretch under Rosario, who rides back. She’s making her third start off a layoff so has move improving to do.

Lighthouse has run two “A” races in a row, both turf sprints, the most recent in the highly rated Daisycutter Stakes at Del Mar. Top jockey Umberto Rispoli takes the call and this filly has a mean late kick which should play very well over this course.

Follow Me on Twitter @Ubercapper

Other racing content
Weekend Stakes Blog at https://www.keeneland.com/media/news/
Weekend Key Races & Bets Blog and Podcast at amwager.com/handicapping/ellis-starr-blog
Analysis of major stakes races every Friday at equibase.com/free

Free Selection for one free race daily at:
Keeneland - keeneland.com/racing/wagering/expert-picks/Ellis Starr
Ellis Park - https://ellisparkracing.com/handicapping-picks
Santa Anita - santaanita.com/author/ellisstarr
Woodbine - https://woodbine.com/handicapping/ellis-starr/
Kentucky Downs - https://kentuckydowns.com/racing/live-racing