Ellis Starr handicaps Wednesday' Franklin-Simpson

Ellis Starr

Kentucky Downs
Wednesday September 16, 2020

Race 9
Franklin-Simpson Stakes – Grade 3

No. 9 Embolden – minimum win betting odds – 4/1
No. 13 Competitive Saint – minimum win betting odds – 4/1
No. 2 Johnny Unleashed – minimum win betting odds – 9/2
No. 10 Another Miracle – minimum win betting odds – 9/2

If Kimari opts for Tuesday’s race (which she did - editor), the win bet strategy should be to bet the two horses (among the four) that go to post at the highest odds.

Exacta:
Box 2, 9, 10, 13

Embolden made a big run for second as the 2 to 1 favorite in a stakes in July, following seven months off. One month later and up in class in the G3 Saranac Stakes, he finished fourth after racing up close, that strategy likely due to the very wet (soft) turf course. Cutting back to a sprint a return to closing tactics is likely and trainer Stidham already won a stakes at the meeting.

Competitive Saint has run well in both turf sprint starts to date, closing nicely to win by a nose in July then finishing second to Jack and Noah in the Mahony Stakes at Saratoga last month. He gets a good post to watch the pace duel unfold and should get a piece at the least if he draw in from the also-eligible list.

Johnny Unleashed led from start to finish to win a turf sprint last month but doesn’t need the lead to win, evidenced by a rally for second two before that in a race in which Maven led from start to finish. Lanerie was up for that effort and with it unlikely Maven, or any other horse, will get an easy lead, Johnny Unleashed’s late kick should have a good impact.

Another Miracle hadn’t won in four races between last August and his most recent race on July 12 but put in a big rally from seventh to win the My Frenchman Stakes. Orseno saddled Imprimis to win the Turf Sprint on Saturday and Corrales has won four of 18 so far at this very tough meet for any jockey or trainer to garner multiple wins and with the hot pace expected this colt could be rolling past most if not all of these in the stretch today.

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